Hon Lugoloobi presenting the NDP IV strategy
HABARI DAILY I Kampala, Uganda I The Government through the National Planning Authority (NPA) has unleashed a five Year Development Plan, aimed at propelling the country into middle class.
The strategy is the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) and is the first of the three 5-year NDPs that will deliver the 10-fold growth strategy, and will cost sh593 trillion to implement.
The plan, through which the quality of life of Ugandans will be improved, presented to Parliament yesterday by Amos Lugoloobi, the state minister for finance in charge of planning.
He said the strategy is expected to be achieved by doubling the size of the economy every five years.
“It is anticipated that by FY2029/30, the country would be enjoying a double-digit growth of 10.13% annually,” he said, adding: “The plan is expected to yield an annual average of 884,962 jobs, while the GDP per capita is also expected to reach $2,942. This will entrench the country’s middle-income status.”
Lugoloobi disclosed that one of the objectives of the strategy is to reduce poverty to 14% in FY2029/30 from 20.3% in FY2019/20 and attain double-digit growth of 10.1% in FY2029/30 from 6% in FY2023/24.
“We will be able to create an average of 884,962 jobs annually over the NDP IV period,” adding that it will also maintain price stability marked by single-digit inflation and contain the debt to GDP ratio and fiscal deficit below 50% in present value terms and 3%,” he said.
The country is expected to attain an increase in revenue to GDP ratio of 18.3% in FY2029/30 from 13.7% in FY2023/24.
The goal of this strategy is doubling GDP every five years over the period FY2025/26-2039/40.
Lugoloobi futher disclosed that the strategy targets a six-fold increase in per capita GDP by 2040 and a 3-fold increase in the annual growth rate of GDP per capita from 4% to 12%.
Hon Lugoloobi presenting the NDP IV strategy to the Parliamentary Committee on Budget
“To attain the above targets, the Government plans to double the level of savings to meet the necessary investment levels. We also intend to stimulate foreign direct investment (FDI), as well as rapidly increase exports and reduce imports and the accumulation of human and physical capital,” he noted.
NPA said attainment of a 10-fold growth strategy will require investment in five key growth areas which include agro-industry, tourism, minerals, oil and gas development, knowledge economy driven by science, technology and innovation, information and communications Technology and finance.
Revenue growth
Uganda’s revenue-to-GDP ratio is expected to grow by 0.5 percentage points annually rising to 18.7% by FY 2029/30 from 14.5% in FY 2023/24, while the expenditure-to-GDP ratio will decline from 24.7% to 19.1% throughout the Plan during the implementation period.
This will be in line with the 10-fold growth strategy, which aims at increasing the country’s GDP from $53b to $500b by 2040.
Lugoloobi added that value addition and industrialization will be the most appropriate drivers of the double-digit growth.
“The qualitative leap will be ushered in during the plan period. We are also looking at full monetization of the economy through the various wealth creation initiatives including Parish Development Model and Emyooga,” he said.
About the NDP IV and 10-fold growth strategy
The National Development Plan IV is the fourth of six National Development Plans (NDPs) to implement the Uganda Vision 2040 that cabinet approved in 2007 for transforming the country.
Its geared towards transforming the Ugandan society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country. The final version will be presented in parliament in May 2025 for approval and rolled out in July 2025. It is also the last Plan to deliver the Global Agenda 2030 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
On the other hand, the “10-fold Growth Strategy” will enable the Ugandan economy to grow from about $50b in 2023 to $500b by 2040. For an ordinary citizen, this means a significant increase in income, from $1,146 (sh4.2m) a year to about $7,000 (sh25.9) by 2040.
It will revolve around prioritization of resources towards agro-industrialisation, tourism, minerals and oil and gas and science, technology, and innovation (ATMS).
NDP IV shall be delivered through the five strategic objectives:
- Sustainably increase production, productivity and value addition in agriculture, industry, minerals, oil & gas, tourism, ICT and financial services,
- Enhance human capital development along the entire life cycle,
- Support the private sector to drive growth and create jobs,
- Build and maintain strategic sustainable infrastructure in transport, housing, energy, water, industry and ICT; and
And strengthen good governance, security, and the role of the State in development.
